A summer with more market fluctuations than first anticipated

Broadly speaking, the equity market’s winners in the first half of the year have found conditions more challenging, while others, somewhat overlooked parts of the market have gained ground. This is a natural consequence of investors taking stock after the sharp rally in the spring, particularly in technology shares linked to artificial intelligence.  

The rotations in the equity market have not been confined to sectors and investment themes. The geographical picture has also changed. European equities have regained momentum after a mixed performance in the first half of 2026. By contrast, other regions – including Asia and the US – have shown greater weakness after several months of strong gains during the spring. Despite a more mixed performance over the summer, equities in Asia and the US have still accounted for most of the rise in global equity markets in 2026. In short, artificial intelligence remains the main driver of the positive developments in investment markets this year.

VækstPension continues to compare favourably with competitors

Changing market conditions have also affected returns among pension providers, with returns generally remaining flat over the summer. Looking at 2026 as a whole, however, VækstPension’s returns as at 31 July continue to compare favourably with those of the other commercial pension providers.

To use a slightly light-hearted Tour de France analogy, VækstPension Index is still wearing the yellow jersey, as it has done for virtually all of 2026. VækstPension Aktiv, which invests across a broader range of asset classes, is in the main field. 

Overall, an average VækstPension customer with 15 years until retirement and a medium risk profile achieved a return of between 7.5% and 8.9% in 2026 up to the end of July. Broadly speaking, that is slightly more than an average annual return – achieved in just seven months. We’re pleased with that, not least because market conditions in the first part of 2026 were challenging, partly as a result of the war in the Middle East. 

Positive outlook, but significant market fluctuations will continue 

We remain a positive view of the market outlook but expect price gains – particularly in the equity market – to be more moderate in the second half of the year. At the same time, we should expect markets to remain subject to significant fluctuations. The war in the Middle East, uncertainty about which companies will emerge as winners from the AI trend, and the fairly sharp rise in interest rates are all likely to cause periodic market volatility in the run-up to the new year.  

However, increased volatility and uncertainty also tend to create opportunities, which we at Velliv continuously monitor and act on – particularly because we look beyond the next few months. The very strong returns generated by our market-rate products in recent years have reinforced our belief that a systematic, data-driven approach to investment markets pays off. This approach will remain at the heart of how we look after your pension savings.