A turbulent year takes shape – yet there are also signs of optimism

5 March 2026

Market update

Author: Frederik Romedahl Poulsen

We’re only a few months into 2026, yet the year has already presented several significant themes. Geopolitics has dominated the agenda, especially here in Denmark, where President Trump’s attempt to take control of Greenland in January caused considerable disruption across Europe and within NATO. More recently, the war in Iran has added fresh concerns in the financial markets, where energy prices have risen sharply since the conflict broke out.

In the financial markets, the early months of the year have been marked by growing unease surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). This is partly due to the substantial capital investments the technology requires, and partly due to the pressure several companies and sectors may face as AI becomes more deeply embedded in society. These concerns are unlikely to fade any time soon.

Positive economic signals are getting lost in the news cycle

What has received far less attention, however, is the positive trend in economic indicators and corporate earnings in the first months of the year. Negative headlines tend to dominate the media, but for the investment market it remains the underlying fundamentals of the economy that matter most.

And on that front, the outlook for 2006 is quite encouraging, as reflected in the preliminary pension returns. A typical Velliv customer with a medium risk profile and 15 years to retirement has earned a return of 2.4-2.8% since the beginning of the year (excluding DinKapital). By historical standards, that is a very decent result.

Amygdala and investing – a bad combination

Bleak news stories often colour the mood when dinner-table conversations turn to investments. With global military escalation, wars and geopolitical tensions dominating the headlines, it’s easy to think that the investment market is heading for trouble. We all recognise these catastrophic thoughts when negatively-charged news activates the amygdala, which is the part of our brains that prime us for rapid fight-or-flight responses. The instinct served early humans well when confronted with sabre-toothed predators, but in the context of investing, impulsive reactions can lead to poor and costly decisions.

We're therefore happy to see that even despite the political turmoil surrounding Greenland back in January, 90% of Danish pension customers have not considered moving into a lower-risk profile. This suggests that most customers manage to keep a cool head despite global noise – which will continue to be important.

Data over instinct

At Velliv, we take a distinctly data-driven and systematic approach to managing our customers’ pension funds. The philosophy behind it is to ensure that we avoid being steered by bias or excessive subjectivity. That does not mean we're blind to the political and technological shifts reshaping the world, nor the importance of not holding on to outdated assumptions in such an environment. But our core principle stands firm: in turbulent times, separating noise from fact becomes more important than ever.

Outlook for 2026: Unstable, yet promising

Despite uncertainties on multiple fronts, the global economic outlook remains positive. The US economy is showing strong momentum, and in Europe, the recovery in Germany in particular points to brighter times – something that will also be felt in Denmark. Companies are delivering solid earnings, interest rates are significantly lower than just a few years ago, and overall inflation is under control.

Taken together, the macroeconomic environment and the direction of the key indicators give us solid grounds to expect sound investment returns when we sum up 2026. The year will undoubtedly remain turbulent – January and February have already made that clear – but the fundamental pillars of the investment market continue to look resilient.