Top returns, but the market is pausing for breath

Uncertainty around the recent months’ top-performing stocks has increased, which has also affected the broader market. At the same time, improvements in the US-Iran negotiations have provided some recent support. In my view, the more volatile movements throughout June clearly indicate that parts of the market may have risen a little too quickly during the spring – and that investors may also have entered the most ‘hyped’ stocks somewhat too aggressively. This once again highlights why diversification in investments often pays off.  

The Iran conflict may be nearing its end – but the scars will take time to heal

As many will know, the conflict in Iran has had a significant impact on financial markets since late February, not least due to the high energy prices that emerged as a by-product of the situation. June’s ‘framework agreement’ for peace between the parties has pushed energy prices significantly down, although levels remain higher than at the turn of the year – something most petrol and diesel car owners will likely have noticed. The effects of the conflict are therefore still influencing both the economy and the inflation. We saw the consequences of this in June, when the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key interest rate for the first time since 2023. Danmarks Nationalbank (the Danish central bank) followed suit. The ECB is concerned that higher energy prices could spill over into increased prices for other goods and services and is therefore acting proactively. 

Although energy prices have eased somewhat, I still expect to see another interest rate increase in the autumn. These rate rises are a key reason why bond returns have been relatively weak this year. That said, I believe the outlook has improved now that negotiations between the US and Iran are beginning to show results, as this may limit how strongly central banks ultimately need to respond. 

Major IPOs ahead – SpaceX excluded for now 

During June, investment markets have had to absorb the IPO of the space giant SpaceX, which is set to become the largest of its kind in history. At Velliv, like many others, we've chosen to exclude the stock – partly due to its extremely high valuation and partly due to corporate governance concerns, which leave minority shareholders with very limited influence.  This decision is based on an overall assessment, and we continuously monitor whether the conditions for including the company in our investment universe change. Looking ahead, equity markets are facing several major IPOs from leading AI companies (including OpenAI and Anthropic), which will similarly be assessed by our investment specialists. 

Exceptionally strong results in early 2026 – more moderate gains to be expected

VækstPension customers have achieved very strong returns for the first half of this year. By the end of May, a typical customer with a medium risk profile and 15 years until retirement had achieved a return in the range of 7.4% – 9.0% for 2026 as a whole. We therefore continue to rank among the top performers compared with our competitors. During June, returns have been relatively flat, primarily due to the equity market decline at the beginning of the month, which has since been reversed. The overall direction remains positive, although developments are unlikely to be as smooth and one-directional as we saw during April and May.